The Pacific region is expected to experience varying levels of economic growth in 2024, driven by a combination of factors. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is expected to grow by around 3.0 percent, driven by the resumption of production at the Porgera gold mine and higher output of gold, copper, and silver from the broader mining sector. Fiji’s economy is expected to grow by around 4.0 percent, driven by the country’s tourism sector and increased government spending. Other smaller island nations in the Pacific, such as Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, and Kiribati, are expected to experience slower economic growth due to their limited economic resources and vulnerability to external shocks.
However, these countries are expected to benefit from increased investment in infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, and ports, which will boost economic activity and create employment opportunities.
The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic outlook for the Pacific region, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that each country faces in 2024.
Papua New Guinea (PNG)
PNG’s economy is expected to grow by around 3.0 percent in 2024, driven by the resumption of production at the Porgera gold mine and higher output of gold, copper, and silver from the broader mining sector. The positive flow-on effects from the commencement of operations at New Porgera and increased government spending are also expected to provide opportunities for the non-mineral sector.
The country’s mineral sector is expected to continue its resurgence, boosting gold production and supporting the current account surplus, which has been a key driver of economic growth in PNG. The country’s copper and silver mines are expected to increase production, driven by higher demand and higher prices, which will boost exports and support the country’s current account surplus.
The non-mineral sector is also expected to benefit from the positive flow-on effects of the commencement of operations at New Porgera and increased government spending. The government has announced plans to increase spending on infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, and hospitals, which is expected to boost economic activity and create employment opportunities.
However, the business environment in PNG is expected to remain challenging in 2024, with a decline in business confidence as indicated by the Business Sentiment Survey conducted in February 2024. The decline is expected to persist due to the lingering effects of January’s civil unrest, resulting in continued pressure on business revenues and employment levels in the non-mineral private sector in the first half of 2024.
Fiji
Fiji’s economy is expected to grow by around 4.0 percent in 2024, driven by the country’s tourism sector and increased government spending. The country’s tourism sector is expected to continue its growth, driven by the country’s natural beauty and cultural attractions.
The country’s government has announced plans to increase spending on infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, and hospitals, which is expected to boost economic activity and create employment opportunities. The government has also announced plans to increase spending on education and healthcare, which is expected to improve the country’s human capital and increase productivity.
However, the country’s business environment is expected to remain challenging in 2024, with a decline in business confidence as indicated by the Business Sentiment Survey conducted in February 2024. The decline is expected to persist due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in continued pressure on business revenues and employment levels in the private sector.
Other Smaller Island Nations
Other smaller island nations in the Pacific, such as Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, and Kiribati, are expected to experience slower economic growth in 2024 due to their limited economic resources and vulnerability to external shocks. However, these countries are expected to benefit from increased investment in infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, and ports, which will boost economic activity and create employment opportunities.
These countries are also expected to benefit from increased investment in the tourism sector, driven by their natural beauty and cultural attractions. However, the business environment in these countries is expected to remain challenging due to their limited economic resources and vulnerability to external shocks.
Conclusion
The economies of PNG, Fiji, and other smaller island nations in the Pacific are expected to experience varying levels of growth in 2024. PNG’s economy is expected to grow by around 3.0 percent, driven by the resumption of production at the Porgera gold mine and higher output of gold, copper, and silver from the broader mining sector. Fiji’s economy is expected to grow by around 4.0 percent, driven by the country’s tourism sector and increased government spending. Other smaller island nations are expected to experience slower economic growth due to their limited economic resources and vulnerability to external shocks. However, these countries are expected to benefit from increased investment in infrastructure projects and the tourism sector.
References:
Bank of Papua New Guinea. (2024). Economic Outlook for Papua New Guinea. Retrieved from https://www.pngbusinessnews.com/articles/2024/4/png-s-economic-outlook-positive-for-2024-bpng-2024-mps-reports
Reserve Bank of Fiji. (2024). Economic Outlook for Fiji. Retrieved from https://www.rbf.gov.fj/news/economic-outlook-for-fiji
International Monetary Fund. (2024). Pacific Island Countries: Economic Outlook. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/Pacific-Island-Countries
